Screenwriter William Goldman said that about Hollywood’s ability to determine what might be a successful movie and what might bomb. That is hyperbole. But it is true about a lot of things, like Russia and Putin.
There is a tendency to think of these guys as master strategists. We have heard for years how clever Putin is. We have also heard what a tight grip he has on Russia. It turns out he is dumb and he doesn’t have a tight grip.
The same may be true of Xi Jinping in China. He also has been described as a master strategist with a tight grip. I am starting to wonder. In the last few years, he has become more aggressive towards Taiwan. This has served to galvanize the U.S. All our military talks about now is China, and preparations for what it sees as an inevitable war this decade. Xi’s rhetoric has aided the U.S. military in keeping the money flowing for new weapons systems. The military is very focused on getting the logistics ready for a war in the Western Pacific.
I think that Xi has been doing this for domestic political reasons. By whipping up nationalistic sentiment, he seeks to strengthen the Chinese Communist Party’s hold on the country. The problem is that, at some point, he has to follow through. If you are going to build up Taiwan as a strategic objective, then you need to take Taiwan. But I don’t think Xi wants to invade Taiwan. I think he wants to threaten to invade Taiwan. There are big questions that Xi doesn’t know the answer to. His military hasn’t fought anyone in a long tim, more than 40 years if you count the 1979 clash with Vietnam and 70 years, really, in the Korean War when China came across the Yalu River.
So China’s military hasn’t fought in a long time. The U.S. military has fought off and on for the past 50 years – in Vietnam, Grenada, in Iraq and Afghanistan. Our special operations units have fought all over the world against terrorists. Some of these conflicts have ben larger than others, but we have a military that is the most experienced in the world. It also trains and fights as a joint force in all domains – air, land, sea, cyber and space. This jointness extends to being able to operate with our allies, with whom we conduct regular exercises.
It is not clear whether Xi understands the capabilities of his military or, as important, our military.