From the Wall Street Journal, after the Republicans lost the Supreme Court election in Wisconsin:
“Republicans had better get their abortion position straight, and more in line with where voters are or they will face another disappointment in 2024. A total ban is a loser in swing states. Republicans who insist on that position could soon find that electoral defeats will lead to even more liberal state abortion laws than under Roe. That’s where Michigan is now after last year’s rout.”
This is relevant in North Carolina. It is relevant in a number of state House and Senate districts, and judicial races and probably even in congressional districts if there’s a move to do a national ban.
There are a number of fault lines in the Republican Party, and abortion is one. For 50 years, Republicans could talk about banning abortion in various permutations and mumbles, but it was irrelevant because of Roe. When the U.S. Supreme Court voided Roe as law of the land, it said to all the Republican politicians, go ahead and ban abortion. We won’t stop you. But in swing states, this is a way to lose statewide elections. Not guaranteed, but it is a way. Now, the Wall Street Journal part of the Republican Party is mainly concerned about taxes, regulation and stuff that impacts business profits. America is filled with swing districts and swing states. Not every state or state and congressional district, but enough. You can only pull the redistricting levers enough and there is an irreducible number of places where the parties actually have to compete for independent-minded voters.
If you tell voters in these places that you are going to ban abortion, they may vote against you. If that happens in enough states and districts, Republicans will lose majorities here and there. Without Republican victories, there will be higher marginal tax rates taxes and more regulation, not less. The Wall Street Journal is saying that there are great political risks in making the Republican brand all about banning abortion from conception. The right-to-life movement does not care what the Wall Street Journal editorial page thinks. It believes that the problem is that Republicans haven’t been clear enough about wanting a complete ban, and if they were clearer and didn’t mumble so much, they would win on a ban. We will find out who is right, I am sure. That is because the Republican primary electorate is very, very conservative, and more likely to nominate absolutists on abortion than six-week, 10-week, 12-weeks moderates. And so we will see what happens next year, because a lot of candidates are going to be nominated in Republican primaries who favor absolute abortion bans.
This showdown could have happened 50 years ago. But the Supreme Court prevented it with Roe, and that led to 50 years of arguing without any resolution. The supporters of Roe said that this was a correct decision because constitutional rights shouldn’t depend on state and local elections. But there have always been people who argue that abortion wasn’t a constitutional right, that the Court conjured it up, and that it should be regulated by statute. Well, that’s where we are now, and the side that can get its voters to the polls will decide abortion policy, state by state. We will now have the debate that has been postponed for 50 years, in every single state legislative district and congressional district and statewide election in the nation, every election, until the end of time.