https://morningconsult.com/2024-gop-primary-election-tracker/
Surveys show that around 47% of Republicans support Donald Trump for the nomination and the rest support other candidates. Ron DeSantis is coming in at around a third of the surveyed Republicans. This indicates that a narrow majority of Republicans want someone else as their 2024 nominee besides Trump.
DeSantis’ strategy is simple. He needs to win about a third of the vote in early primaries next winter and wait for other candidates to drop out for lack of support and mainly money. Some of the candidates who will get in are just trying to see if they catch a break and do well, but when they don’t, they will exit. Some are probably auditioning for 2028.
Some are thinking that if DeSantis stumbles and no longer is viable as the top Trump alternative, they could become that alternative.
But if DeSantis does as expected, it could turn into a two-man race pretty quickly, and then he may be running even with Trump in primaries and even beating him. DeSantis is the driver with a fast car at Daytona who has to stay out of early wrecks, be careful not to blow an engine and get in and out of the pit quickly. If he can stay on the lead lap with Trump in the early part of the race, things will set up well for him.
Cruz and Rubio were actually doing pretty well in March 2016, and if one of them hadn’t been running, the other probably could have started beating Trump pretty regularly and denying him delegates. What DeSantis is hoping is that he can clear out the field in February, and in March, it will be just him and Trump.
Some folks think that Trump is going to just keep beating up on DeSantis, baiting him and taunting him. But what DeSantis doesn’t want to do is alienate Trump’s 47% by swinging back too much. When Trump gets DeSantis in the corner of the ring, and starts hitting him, DeSantis needs to keep his elbows up, take a few punches to the body, but otherwise let Trump wear himself out. Remember, Trump’s problem is that Republicans who like him may also have enough sense to recognize that DeSantis may be kind of the future, and what is the benefit to the party of Trump constantly beating up on the younger Republican leaders of the party? Why do they want to see Trump do the Democrats’ job for them?
So if DeSantis can stay on his feet long enough to get a clear field, he will be in pretty good shape to win the nomination. Then he faces another problem, which is a very angry and unhappy Trump, who super doesn’t like losing.
The Republican convention could be a mess. The party could leave Milwaukee deeply divided. Trump doesn’t have to run a third-party candidacy to damage the GOP. He just has to go home and periodically attack the Republican nominee. His partisans may decide to stay home in November 2024 if Trump isn’t on the ballot, which would have significant implications for down-ballot candidates.
The Republican leadership has a choice, and both alternatives are unpalatible. One choice is to nominate Trump and roll the dice. Trump on the ballot will motivate Democrats like no one else, and so that choice could end in disaster for the party, up and down the ballot. The other choice is to rally behind DeSantis (or somone else) and try to deny Trump the nomination. This choice, if successful, will alienate many of Trump’s loyalists and suppress the November GOP vote. Of course, a less polarizing nominee might also win enough independents to be successful. But that’s a long shot, if the Trump base stays home.
So the Republican Party remains hostage to Trump as long as he wants to keep it hostage and Republican leaders decide to roll over for him, which they have a tendency to do. And the Republican leadership that is now anti-Trump has no one to blame for its situation than itself. It couldn’t get its act together in 2016, and let Trump gradually gain momentum in the early primaries. Republican leaders couldn’t get Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio and others to stand down, and so they couldn’t stop Trump when it was possible. Trump has been able to hold on to his base, and controls the Republican Party, and stands to keep that control unless party leaders are willing to have a big showdown next year, basically risk everything to regain control. Party leaders have never been willing to come out from behind trees and fight Trump in open country, because they are afraid of what they perceive as Trump’s base. Liz Cheney did it and got beat. But Brian Kemp in Georgia kind of did it and won. So it isn’t 100 percent clear what happens when you really take on Trump in a national way today. It isn’t the summer of 2016 and it isn’t 2020. There is a certain amount of Trump fatique in the air. You see it in the Murdoch media outlets, certain days and certain times of day. Haley and DeSantis can count votes, and they have decided that it can be done, which, to me, is as significant as polling.